Democrats Abroad

For anyone who is following the presidential primaries really closely----like really closely----to see whose the best candidate to go toe to toe with Trump in November, you already know that we are down to two candidates: former Vice President Joe Biden and Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders. Biden has sustained a wider lead, both in delegate count and number of states won.

The results of another primary election was revealed, and provides a little cushion for Benie Sanders: he has won the  Democrats Abroad primary.




The week-long primary occurred from March 3 through 10 in various cities all across the world in which Americans live abroad, with provisional results showing that Sanders won down the line in the five provisional locations.

That means Sanders picked up nine of the thirteen pledged delegates and Biden picked up the remaining four, as he was placed in second.


The most interesting, however, when viewing the results of how well Elizabeth Warren did with the different precincts. Let me try to explain.

There were five remaining candidates in the race as of the start of the DA primary, and only two of them (Elizabeth Warren and Michael Bloomberg) dropped out of the race, and Tulsi remained until last week. Yet, Warren managed to get enough votes to settle for a third-place finish. I could’ve written it off, but look at the results. What was surprising to me was the fact she ALMOST added to her delegate count.



She had a surprising 14.3% of the votes—-only seven-tenths of a percentage shy from reaching the delegate threshhold. That’s an amazing feat considering she withdrew from the race AFTER the fact.

What was even more amazing and surprising——Warren had a twelve percentage points over the fourth-place finisher Bloomberg. He finished with a measly TWO percent.

Even if Bernie had dropped out before the race was over, this would still qualify as a victory for him. The only question remains is: will he keep going at this point.

On another note, no primary elections until April 7 now it seems. Puerto Rico has decided to postpone their elections until April 26.

So here is the updated delegate count on where everything stands (delegate count courtesy of Politico.com)


NEXT: With Puerto Rico now rescheduled, April 4 is the next round of primaries in Alaska, Hawaii, and Wyoming. Here’s hoping none of those states reschedule  as the DNC is looking to initiate a voting-by-mail procedure in the coming days that could hopefully move this along.

Tulsi Gabbard (or down to the final two)

Judging by the newest pick as the header on my blog post, we have another candidate who dropped out of the race. Tulsi Gabbard, the representative from Hawaii and the last female candidate in the race, has officially dropped out as of today. She also endorsed Biden as candidate. It was widely speculated she would drop at some point, as she only won a count of two delegates from American Samoa and hasn’t been polling that well. Read more about it here

It is widely speculated she might run as a third-party candidate, therefor becoming a spoiler for either the Trump or Biden campaign come November. Pretty much hope for the former than the later, I can’t really stand that guy.

And I also have an updated pic on where everything stands in the delegate count with Biden still leading by a large margin. Although it hasn’t been confirmed yet, it looks as though Sandes may win the Democrats Abroad race if he doesn’t decide to drop. If he does, then he still wins the delegate count which will inch him up on his delete count, ‘cuz right now he is getting pummeled hard like Ivan Drago pummeled Apollo Creed in “Rocky IV”.

Election Night - March 17, 2020

It’s election night in 3 of the 4 states as we have a lot to get to…and the night is overshadowed by the Coronavirus outbreak which has seen much of the cities pretty much or either lockdown or self-isolation mode.

FOhio was supposed to hold it’s primary tonight, but the governor there wanted to essentially postpone it. He got his wish as he essentially DEFIED a federal judge order saying it would’ve gone ahead scheduled. The rescheduling puts it in flux. Other states followed suit as well, as you can see by the picture (courtesy of MSNBC). Below are the new scheduled dates.


Here is where everything stands as of tonight in terms with rescheduling:
The Ohio primary was rescheduled from March 17, 2020, to a date to be determined.
The Georgia primary was rescheduled from March 24, 2020, to May 19, 2020.
The Puerto Rico primary will be rescheduled from March 29, 2020, to April 26, 2020, pending approval from the Puerto Rican House of Representatives and the governor of the territory.
The Louisiana primary was rescheduled from April 4, 2020, to June 20, 2020.
The Maryland primary was rescheduled from April 28, 2020, to June 2, 2020.
The Kentucky primary was rescheduled from May 19, 2020, to June 23, 2020.

I also heard rumblings that the DNC might consider voting-by-mail ballots proceeding forward, with an option for people to go to the polling places should they remain open. So we'll see what happens.

The other three states —- Florida, Illinois, and Arizona —- are going ahead with their primaries as planned.

Florida was the first up in the night, and it was the main one of the night as a total of 216 delegates will be awarded. As of 5:00, the Associated Press announced that Joe Biden is the winner. MSNBC was tracking some of the results as early as thirty minutes before as early poll tracking came in. As of the hour, Biden held a substantial 61 percent lead over Sanders’ 23 percent, with roughly 70% of the results coming in.

Illinois came next, and it was too early to call in that state. (Will add when I check in two hours, by which time the Arizona results should come)

6:30 - Illinois got called for Biden

And in the final state of the night, which was revealed at about 8:00 at night, the results of Arizona were revealed: and it went to —- Joseph Biden. 3-3.

And in my opinion, this was reminiscent of a feat made by Bernie Sanders four years ago when he won all seven of the seven states in a contest between him and Hilary Clinton.

As of the March 17 the delegate count are as follows (although it might change once voting in the remaining races are counted):

 

Biden is now over the 1,000 delegate mark, and has taken a substantial lead over Sanders. As of yesterday, Sanders was going to take time off the campaign trail in order to "assess his path moving forward", which is never a good sign.

NEXT: If the primary schedule holds (and assuming it doesn't get approval), Puerto Rico will be the next to hold a vote on March 29 now that Georgia has been recheduled. As stated above, Georgia was supposed to hold a vote next Tuesday. That will now take place on May 19, and there's no telling what the Coronavirus situation will be like by then.

Northern Marianas

Bernie Sanders bounced back with a much needed win in the Northern Marianas Trench where caucuses were held today. He won 4 of the 6 delegates. The other two were won by Joe Biden. Five superdelegates remain open.

He easily won this with 63.6 percent of the votes to Joseph Biden’s 36.3 percent. However, that was enough to give Biden the two remaining delegates up for grabs.

As of now the delegate count are as follows (although it might change once voting in the remaining races are counted):

 
 





NEXT:
Sunday is the first of two debates with only two sole remaining candidates after Tulsi Gabbard failed to qualify based on the new level of requirements that you needed to win 20 percent of the delegates Tulsi has won two so far, but even if she did a clean sweep last week’s second Super Tuesday round and today’s race it still wouldn’t be enough. The debate airs on CNN tomorrow.

March 17 - four more states are scheduled to hold primaries: Arizona, Illinois, Florida, and Ohio. Three of the four states are in the 100+ delegate range, and Florida will be the biggest prize of the night with a total of 219 pledged delegates awarded. Both candidates are almost halfway to the 1,991 delegate threshold they need to secure their party’s nomination (Biden’s the closest with 890!), and whoever wins might put themselves over the halfway mark. The Coronavirus outbreak has seen Louisiana canceling its planned April, and so far the states haven’t budged.

And the winner of the California Primary is…

The California Primary finally emerged with a victor after coming in on Super Tuesday last week being too early to call. Bernie Sanders has been declared the winner with 38% of the votes tallied to Biden’s 25% (as you can tell from the graphic that opens that blog post.).

However, it was an interesting climb for Joe Biden as he wasn’t expected to grab any delegates. Let me explain.

California was one off the states that kicked off with early voting, and  lasted for a couple of days. When it was all said and down, early projections showed Bernie Sanders with a substantial lead over his opponent, and Joe Biden wasn’t anywhere near the 15 percent threshold to receive delegates. That big lead over Joe Biden was supposed to give him a whopping 300 delegates. I believe Michael Bloomberg was a strong second-place showing.

That was before South Carolina changed everything.

The Clyburn endorsement sealed the deal and was enough to clinch Biden his first win in the election cycle. Then as candidates Pete Buttigeg and Amy Klobuchar dropped out of the race, they also endorsed Biden. Even Beto O’ Rourke who was knocked out of the race early on also came out and endorsed him. Three more wins followed, and soon enough Biden was starting to gain traction as a viable candidate whe, a mere three weeks ago, his campaign was seen as all but dead.

By the time the in-person voting for the California primary began (and with the early-voting ballots not counted yet at that point), Biden garnered enough viability in California to surge him into a strong second place finish. I think early predictions before Super Tuesday had him at 11 percent. So 11 percent from three weeks ago to 25 percent today. Not a bad climb.

And that, ladies and gentlemen, is how you divide up delegates.

And while we’re on the subject of California, this is the state that ultimately went to Hillary Clinton in 2016. As much as I thought change was on the horizon with the first African-American president transitioning to a first-female president, that ended up not happening.

It’s not a huge victory for Sanders, but more of a landslide. Heck, Biden got enough votes to push Bloomberg down to third place finish, so it was more of an uphill victory for him. His delegate count in the state went up from 0 to 162 with 96% of the votes counted.

Sanders received 202 as of this post (again, look at the photo)

Congrats to Sanders on his victory as well as man excellent out-of-the-blue comeback by Joe Biden.

As of now the delegate count are as follows (although it might change once voting in the remaining races are counted):

NEXT UP: The Northern Mariana Islands hold their primary tomorrow, but it won’t amount to much as six delegates are awarded. So basically, the delegate race won’t move an inch THAT much. (At least not until four states vote March 17, but more on that tomorrow folks)

And a change to report: Louisiana was one of the states scheduled to vote on April 4. Because of the Coronavirus scare, the state will now hold that election on June 20 — meaning it becomes the final contest of the election nomination cycle. I’ve heard the other states are doing some switcher when it comes to polling areas, but they are staying where they are.=.

Super Tuesday II: Where we stand before tonight

Super Tuesday II Results - the results so far

Here are the standings leading into tonight's second Super Tuesday primary, in which six states and 395 delegates are up for grabs. I've also heard that this is literally a make-or-break moment for the Sanders campaign. Right now he's literally neck-in-neck with Joe Biden, with the former taking the lead by 100 more delegates. With Warren and Bloomberg having dropped out after their less-than-dissappointing results last week, it's literally a race between the top two candidates: Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders (oh, and Tulsi Gabbard's still managing to hang in there). If Biden wins a majority of the delegates, that could put him right around the 1,000 delegate mark. Bernie still has a fighting chance, although Michigan stands to be his last chance for a campaign boost.

UPDATE:
There are still 140 more delegates from last week’s Super Tuesday up for grabs and accounted for. Most of that comes from California, in which the election results are still being o=processed. Bernie Sanders has been projected to winn that state, but there are 3.3 million mail-in ballots that still to be counted. We could see a winner in our state by the end of March or April.

And there’s the issue of the Coronavirus that is going to see whether that will affect voter turnout. Both Biden and Sanders have cancelled planned events in Washington earlier in the day due to Coronavirus concerns. Whoops, I mean, the CONVID-19 virus.

Biden wins Missouri at 5:00 with 0.4% poll reporting

Biden wins Missouri at 5:20 with only 1% of vote counted

North Dakota - as of 8pm, it’s too early to call.

Michigan - as of 9pm, it’s too early to call as exit polls started tracking even before it closed and showed that both candidates are within striking distance of each other —- 53% Biden to 42% for Sanders. They will each be awarded delegates as Sanders surpassed the threshold of 15 percent.

6:07 - It’s called for Biden with 52% of the votes in. This is an upset for Bernie Sanders as this was a state he won against Hillary Clinton in 2016. Still, it’s a close one in terms of delegate counts.  This race may not be over folks.

9:00 - Washington and Idaho are too early to call.

I think I might have to add another entry tomorrow it looks like, but the results so far tonight: 3 states for Biden, 2 states too early to call, and North Dakota is too early as well but Sanders maintains an early lead of 40 to 26.

It is also of note to point out that another race, the Democrats Abroad, held their week-long primary that began March 3 and wrapped today. On Monday, the DNC chair indicated they didn't anticipate announcing any unofficial results before March 23 due to the high volume of remote ballots.

Check back either tomorrow or Thursday where I will have more and also an updated delegate count total.

Seven becomes six

And just like that seven became six as former South Bend mayor Pete Buggigeg dropped out. While he had a strong showing in Iowa, he wasn’t able to keep the momentum going. He was struggling to gain votes in Nevada and South Carolina.

I was expecting Mike Bloomberg to drop out first, but I guess he’s expecting to go for the big leagues come Super Tuesday. We’ll see if enough political ad money translates into votes. However, I wasn’t’t expecting anyone to drop off until AFTER Super Tuesday.

We’ll see what happens though. More tomorrow or Tuesday.

PolitiView Democratic Primary Journal #4

And just like that, Biden’s back in the game.

The former vice president got back in the race after a strong first place showing in South Carolina, a state he wanted to desperately to win. He appeared confident when asked that question during the Democratic Debate this week, and his endorsement from House Majority Whip Jim Clyburn on either Wednesday or Thursday pretty much sealed the deal.

Biden said that if he wasn’t going to win either Nevada or South Carolina, he was going to drop out.

He won South Carolina. Now he forges ahead to Super Tuesday, in which fourteen are scheduled to vote on Super Tuesday, March 3: 1,617 pledged delegates are up for grabs (from which only 1,344 of them are pledged).

South Carolina’s win makes the count: 1 state for Biden, 2 for Sanders (New Hampshire and Nevada) and one for Buttigeg (Iowa). Since Biden and Sanders were the only top candidates with 15 percent or more of the overall votes, they are awarded the delegate count. Biden got the most.

Here are the results of the primary:

And here are where the top candidates stand in the headboard.

With Biden’s win, he is now almost neck-and-neck with Sanders and can easily overtake this.

Despite finishing in third place, Tom Steyer dropped out of the political race a hour of two after the election was called. Now he can focus on the Need to Vote movement (formerly Need to Impeach), and he has pledged to give his full backing to whoever comes out on top.

Next stop - Like I mentioned, March 3 is Super Tuesday, where 14 states will participate.
The states in play are as follows: Alabama, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Maine, Massachusetts, Minnesota, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Vermont, and Virginia
The American Samoa will also hold its caucus on that day, and the Democrats Abroad will also hold a week-long voting from March 3-10, 2020.

I expect a lot more candidates will drop after either this Super Tuesday or next Tuesday, March 10.